Nix Bits

Everything is Crazy has published an article that asserts that ever increasing bandwidth will eventually overcome Microsoft’s Operating System monopoly. In other words, the application platform moves from the Operating System to the Internet itself.

There is some evidence to support the notion that Operating Systems will matter less and less. Google’s Gmail is a tantalizing, but relatively simple glimpse. Mozilla and Firefox have oft been presented as application platforms in their own right. Certainly the browser is one of the most utilized components for any computer user. And while the old “the network is the computer” campaigns ultimately fizzled, as Everything is Crazy’s author notes in a followup, the bandwidth simply wasn’t there.

Here’s where the argument falls apart a bit for me:

Most users have no desire to be the system administrators of their machines, and would gladly turn that task over to someone else for a nominal fee. As bandwidth increases, telcos, cable companies, and others will be in the perfect position to become application service providers for the average home user, and said average home user will gladly accept this, as long as the price isn’t too high. I see this as almost inevitable.

It’s true, average joe users are struggling with security pains and becoming less than happy system administrators. But I just don’t see cable companies and telcos stepping up to this plate. The bottom line, as always, is the bottom line. The investment to become an application provider would be substantial. This is particularly evident when you factor in the support costs. Telco’s and cable companies have not been particularly good at consumer tech support and satisfaction so far.

And I don’t see there being a viable return on investment any time soon. Providers are still looking to maximize their initial investments building and launching broadband. They are spending most of their time and dollars getting ‘triple-play’ going to compete with one another while fending off interlopers such as Vonage and AT&T for voice. The only provider that might have some ability to test these waters as a variant of the Application Service Provider is Time-Warner with it’s AOL division.

Otherwise, third parties probably have the best possibility of getting into this sort of game. Will we one day do all of our word processing and spreadsheet work in a browser rather than a traditional desktop app? Maybe. Or maybe in two or three years things will be far more different than we imagined presenting other possibilities for people to get (over)excited about.